Prediction Markets Put the US-Iran Ceasefire on a Short Clock

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a fragile truce, with over $16.5 million wagered on when or whether Washington will officially close the books on its military campaign against Tehran. Key Takeaways: Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran military operations market hit $16.4M in volume, with April 30 carrying 42% odds. Kalshi gives only a 16% chance […]...